Evolutionary potential in wild populations – PEPS

Using state of the art molecular and quantitative genetics tools in combination with demographic analysis, we will use several populations / species of birds studied in the long-term to identify i) forces of selection acting on natural populations, and especially forces driven by climate change, ii) environmental factors affecting dispersal rates, with a special interest for habitat structure and fragmentation, iii) ecological and phylogenetic factors shaping genetic architecture and affecting its stability, and iv) which regions of the genome show signatures of selection and are therefore likely to be partially responsible for adaptation to different environments. Using a comparative approach among populations and species will allow investigating evolutionary processes at different time and space scales and hence link micro and macroevolutionary patterns.

To date, at the intraspecific level, our results include a better understanding of the genetics of breeding in birds notably in terms of phenology (laying date), a trait of particular interest in the context of climate change. We also had the opportunity to investigate how age affects estimates of evolutionary potential in breeding traits. At the interpsecific level, a meta-analysis investigated the link between habitat specialisation on heritability.

These results will be included in predictive niche models that will assess to which extent the inclusion of rapid evolution and stability of evolutionary potential are affecting predictions from biodiversity scenarios. Hence our approach should provide new tools at the interplay of ecology and evolutionary biology to quantify to what extent model projections neglecting the adaptive component might bias estimates of species extinction risks which are key parameters for policymakers.

Seven publications (from «in press« to «in prep«) are so far related to this project. Two are chapters for the book Quantitative genetics in Wild Populations (OUP) for which A. Charmantier and D. Garant are editors.

In a rapidly changing world, we need operational tools to predict and manage responses of biodiversity. To date, although it is clear from both theoretical and empirical work that adaptation can influence the persistence of populations on short time scales, biodiversity scenarios are conspicuously lacking an evolutionary component. One major limitation to the implementation of scenarios including adaptation dynamics is that our knowledge of evolutionary potential and constraints is still too imperfect. In this project, we propose to improve our understanding of adaptive mechanisms in wild populations by integrating theoretical and empirical approaches in wild bird populations at different spatial and taxonomic scales.
Using state of the art molecular and quantitative genetics tools in combination with demographic analysis, we will use several populations / species of birds studied in the long-term to identify i) forces of selection acting on natural populations, and especially forces driven by climate change, ii) environmental factors affecting dispersal rates, with a special interest for habitat structure and fragmentation, iii) ecological and phylogenetic factors shaping genetic architecture and affecting its stability, and iv) which regions of the genome show signatures of selection and are therefore likely to be partially responsible for adaptation to different environments. Using a comparative approach among populations and species will allow investigating evolutionary processes at different time and space scales and hence link micro and macroevolutionary patterns.
These results will be included in predictive niche models that will assess to which extent the inclusion of rapid evolution and stability of evolutionary potential are affecting predictions from biodiversity scenarios. Hence our approach should provide new tools at the interplay of ecology and evolutionary biology to quantify to what extent model projections neglecting the adaptive component might bias estimates of species extinction risks which are key parameters for policymakers.
Moreover, we will put great emphasis on communicating the importance of the biodiversity/evolution interface by (i) collaborating with policy-makers working on biodiversity within the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations and by (ii) strengthening citizen science through the organisation of exhibitions and conferences in a leading natural history museum (Museum d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris). All in all, results from this project will provide an integrative picture of factors affecting responses to global change improving fundamental knowledge at the interface of ecology and evolution but also including a resolutely operational dimension.