The French National Research Agency Projects for science

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ANR funded project

Innovations (DS0801) 2014

Decision Making and Belief Change in the face of Severe Uncertainty: A Confidence-Based Approach

How should governments decide in the face of radical uncertainties such as those involved in climate change, energy policy, genetically modified organisms or nanotechnologies? How should scientists incorporate new, yet inconclusive evidence into their current state of knowledge and uncertainty? The standard normative theory of decision making and belief change in philosophy and economics, Bayesianism, seems incapable of giving satisfactory replies to these questions. The central aim of this project is to deal with the fundamental issue of which notion of rationality is appropriate for the new risks and severe uncertainties that we as a society are faced with today. A normative theory of decision making and belief change based on the idea that one's confidence in one's beliefs has a role to play in decision and learning will be developed. Consequences will be drawn for public decision making, and the ground shall be laid for applications to concrete decisions. Awareness of these fundamental questions and possible replies shall be promoted among actors in the decision making process.


GREGHEC Groupement de Recherches et Etudes en Gestion à HEC

ANR grant: 198 972 euros
Beginning and duration: octobre 2014 - 36 mois


ANR Programme: Innovations (DS0801) 2014

Project ID: ANR-14-CE29-0003

Project coordinator:
Monsieur Brian Hill (Groupement de Recherches et Etudes en Gestion à HEC)


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The project coordinator is the author of this abstract and is therefore responsible for the content of the summary. The ANR disclaims all responsibility in connection with its content.