Real-time forecasting system of coastal and inland floods in tropical cyclone prone areas – SPICy

With its Overseas Territories, France is present in three of the seven cyclonic basins (North Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Ocean). The local authorities are regularly faced to cyclonic crisis situations whose frequency should possibly increase with climate change. However, they currently don’t have any tools dedicated to cyclone-induced inundation forecast at their disposal.

The SPICy project aims at tackling the issue of cyclonic coastal and inland floods forecast in the French Overseas Territories through the development of technological building blocks and the realization of a demonstrator for Réunion Island. To reach this objective, the project will address some limitations of the current forecasting system and contribute to international ongoing efforts on cyclonic and induced impacts prediction, focusing on : (1) the assessment of meteorological forecast uncertainties through the use of ensemble tracks generation techniques (2) high resolution meteorological modelling taking into account orography and real-time data assimilation (3) the extension of forecast information to coastal and inland floods through the development of dedicated modules, notably in urban areas (4) the study of marine/river interaction and its consequences on the flood extent (5) the management of computation times and the investigation of optimization techniques (6) the development of users interfaces to improve the accuracy and relevance of the information provided to emergency managers. Thus, the developments of the project should participate to complete the vigilance information given by the local authorities during the crisis (communication on flood vigilance, traffic conditions, etc.) and to better anticipate prevention actions (safety measures for people and goods, evacuation procedures, closing of exposed communication lines, etc.).

The originality of SPICy is the interdisciplinary approach that enables building a comprehensive strategy to holistically address cyclonic forecast issues. Beyond the improvement, implementation and combination of different physical models, the novelty of the project will also lie in methodological developments to properly account for the crisis operator’s demands. This aspect will be ensured by a strong implication of the crisis management actors through their participation in the advisory committee and the users group. The demonstrator will be tested during a crisis exercise at Réunion Island.